Percent Chance of Each Possible Super Bowl LI Matchup Occurring (Using Statistical Formula)

Photo Credit: The Business Journals (featured image), ESPN (team logos)

These picks were made by a formula that is 20% based on winning percentage, 25% based on home/road winning percentage, 15% based on winning percentage against common opponents, 10% based on points scored-points allowed ratio, 7.5% based on standings Rating Percentage Index (RPI) ranking, 7.5% based on standings RPI, 5% based on points RPI ranking, 5% based on points RPI, 2.5% based on power ranking, and 2.5% based on winning percentage over the last five games.

NOTE: All percentages are rounded to the hundredths place.


Here are the percent chances that each team gets to Super Bowl LI.

ATL #2 Atlanta Falcons (12-5) have a 51.86% chance to defeat the GB #4 Green Bay Packers, (12-6), who have a 48.14% chance to defeat the Falcons


NE #1 New England Patriots (15-2) have a 54.16% chance to defeat the PIT #3 Pittsburgh Steelers, (13-5), who have a 45.84% chance to defeat the Patriots



Here are the percent chance of each of the four possible Super Bowl LI matchups occurring.

Calculation: [(percent chance of one AFC team to get to Super Bowl LI)*(percent chance of one NFC team to get to Super Bowl LI)]

NOTE: The percentages used in these calculations are those calculated from the initial formula shown at the top of this article. The percentages that resulted from that formula are also shown above.


NE #1 New England Patriots vs. ATL #2 Atlanta Falcons

  • Calculation: [(.5416)*(.5186)]
  • Result: .2809
  • Percent Chance of this being the Super Bowl LI Matchup: 28.09%

NE #1 New England Patriots vs. GB #4 Green Bay Packers

  • Calculation: [(.5416)*(.4814)]
  • Result: .2607
  • Percent Chance of this being the Super Bowl LI Matchup: 26.07%

PIT #3 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. ATL #2 Atlanta Falcons

  • Calculation: [(.4584)*(.5186)]
  • Result: .2377
  • Percent Chance of this being the Super Bowl LI Matchup: 23.77%

PIT #3 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. GB #4 Green Bay Packers

  • Calculation: [(.4584)*(.4814)]
  • Result: .2207
  • Percent Chance of this being the Super Bowl LI Matchup: 22.07%


-Asher Fair


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