Percent Chance Each Remaining NFL Team Wins Super Bowl LI (Using Statistical Formula)

Photo Credit: The Onion (featured image), ESPN (team logos)

These picks were made by a formula that is 20% based on winning percentage, 25% based on home/road winning percentage, 15% based on winning percentage against common opponents, 10% based on points scored-points allowed ratio, 7.5% based on standings Rating Percentage Index (RPI) ranking, 7.5% based on standings RPI, 5% based on points RPI ranking, 5% based on points RPI, 2.5% based on power ranking, and 2.5% based on winning percentage over the last five games.

NOTE: All percentages are rounded to the hundredths place.

 

Here are the percent chances that each team gets to Super Bowl LI.

ATL #2 Atlanta Falcons (12-5) have a 51.86% chance to defeat the GB #4 Green Bay Packers, (12-6), who have a 48.14% chance to defeat the Falcons

 

NE #1 New England Patriots (15-2) have a 54.16% chance to defeat the PIT #3 Pittsburgh Steelers, (13-5), who have a 45.84% chance to defeat the Patriots

 

 

Here are the percent chances that each team wins Super Bowl LI in a given matchup given that they win their conference championship game.

NOTE: This formula is based on what the values for each of these percentages would be assuming victory in the conference championship round for each team in a potential Super Bowl LI matchup (each time a team is listed, it assumes they won their conference championship game, and the values represented for each percentage listed above are based on that assumption).

PIT #3 Pittsburgh Steelers, (14-5) have a 51.47% chance to defeat the GB #4 Green Bay Packers, (13-6), who have a 48.53% chance to defeat the Steelers

 

PIT #3 Pittsburgh Steelers, (14-5) have a 51.75% chance to defeat the ATL #2 Atlanta Falcons (13-5) , who have a 48.25% chance to defeat the Steelers

 

NE #1 New England Patriots (16-2) have a 53.02% chance to defeat the GB #4 Green Bay Packers, (13-6), who have a 46.98% chance to defeat the Patriots

 

NE #1 New England Patriots (16-2) have a 52.53% chance to defeat the ATL #2 Atlanta Falcons (13-5), who have a 47.47% chance to defeat the Patriots

 

 

Here are the percent chance that each team wins Super Bowl LI not knowing if they will win their conference championship game or not or who they will play in Super Bowl LI if they do.

Calculation: (percent chance to get to Super Bowl LI)*{[(percent chance to play one team in Super Bowl LI)*(percent chance to beat that team in Super Bowl LI)]+[(percent chance to play the other team in Super Bowl LI)*(percent chance to beat that team in Super Bowl LI)]}

NOTE: The percentages used in these calculations are those calculated from the initial formula shown at the top of this article. The percentages that resulted from that formula are also shown above.

NE #1 New England Patriots

  • Calculation: (.5416)*{[(.5186)*(.5253)]+[(.4814)*(.5302)]}
  • Result: .2858
  • Percent Chance to Win Super Bowl LI: 28.58%

ATL #2 Atlanta Falcons

  • Calculation: (.5186)*{[(.5416)*(.4747)]+[(.4584)*(.4825)]}
  • Result: .2480
  • Percent Chance to Win Super Bowl LI: 24.80%

PIT #3 Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Calculation: (.4584)*{[(.5186)*(.5175)]+[(.4814)*(.5147)]}
  • Result: .2366
  • Percent Chance to Win Super Bowl LI: 23.66%

GB #4 Green Bay Packers

  • Calculation: (.4814)*{[(.5416)*(.4698)]+[(.4584)*(.4853)]}
  • Result: .2296
  • Percent Chance to Win Super Bowl LI: 22.96%

 

-Asher Fair

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