Mock NBA Lottery (100 Simulations)

Photo Credit: nba.com

Due to the odds for this year’s NBA Draft lottery being known and the lottery itself coming up in just 11 days, I decided to run 100 simulations of the lottery process to predict who will get each pick (using tankathon.com). If you want to know the odds each team has at getting each pick, see my older post here: https://sportspress.co/2016/04/29/nba-lottery-odds/

Here are the picks and, in parenthesis, how many times each of the teams were selected for each pick out of my 100 trials. (NOTE: These do not factor in other team’s owning other team’s picks. This is just based on the team themselves and their odds to land in a spot. Anything that happens after that is based on trades, which do not affect the lottery. Also, only team’s that have a chance at getting a given pick are listed under that pick itself):

Pick #1:

  1. Philadelphia 76ers (31)
  2. Brooklyn Nets (21)
  3. Los Angeles Lakers (13)
  4. Phoenix Suns (11)
  5. New Orleans Pelicans (8)
  6. Minnesota Timberwolves (7)
  7. Sacramento Kings (2)
  8. Milwaukee Bucks (2)
  9. Washington Wizards (2)
  10. New York Knicks (1)
  11. Utah Jazz (1)
  12. Chicago Bulls (1)
  13. Denver Nuggets (0)
  14. Orlando Magic (0)

Pick #2:

  1. Los Angeles Lakers (26)
  2. Philadelphia 76ers (17)
  3. Brooklyn Nets (12)
  4. New York Knicks (11)
  5. Phoenix Suns (10)
  6. New Orleans Pelicans (10)
  7. Minnesota Timberwolves (4)
  8. Denver Nuggets (3)
  9. Milwaukee Bucks (3)
  10. Orlando Magic (2)
  11. Sacramento Kings (1)
  12. Washington Wizards (1)
  13. Utah Jazz (0)
  14. Chicago Bulls (0)

Pick #3:

  1. Los Angeles Lakers (20)
  2. Philadelphia 76ers (19)
  3. Brooklyn Nets (15)
  4. Phoenix Suns (14)
  5. New Orleans Pelicans (10)
  6. Minnesota Timberwolves (9)
  7. New York Knicks (5)
  8. Sacramento Kings (3)
  9. Denver Nuggets (1)
  10. Milwaukee Bucks (1)
  11. Utah Jazz (1)
  12. Washington Wizards (1)
  13. Chicago Bulls (1)
  14. Orlando Magic (0)

Pick #4:

  1. Philadelphia 76ers (33)
  2. Los Angeles Lakers (31)
  3. Brooklyn Nets (22)
  4. Phoenix Suns (14)

Pick #5:

  1. Phoenix Suns (39)
  2. Minnesota Timberwolves (27)
  3. Brooklyn Nets (24)
  4. Los Angeles Lakers (10)

Pick #6:

  1. Minnesota Timberwolves (45)
  2. New Orleans Pelicans (38)
  3. Phoenix Suns (11)
  4. Brooklyn Nets (6)

Pick #7:

  1. New York Knicks (59)
  2. New Orleans Pelicans (32)
  3. Minnesota Timberwolves (8)
  4. Phoenix Suns (1)

Pick #8:

  1. Sacramento Kings (75)
  2. New York Knicks (23)
  3. New Orleans Pelicans (2)
  4. Minnesota Timberwolves (0)

Pick #9:

  1. Denver Nuggets (80)
  2. Sacramento Kings (19)
  3. New York Knicks (1)
  4. New Orleans Pelicans (0)

Pick #10:

  1. Milwaukee Bucks (84)
  2. Denver Nuggets (16)
  3. Sacramento Kings (0)
  4. New York Knicks (0)

Pick #11:

  1. Orlando Magic (90)
  2. Milwaukee Bucks (10)
  3. Denver Nuggets (0)
  4. Sacramento Kings (0)

Pick #12:

  1. Utah Jazz (92)
  2. Orlando Magic (8)
  3. Milwaukee Bucks (0)
  4. Denver Nuggets (0)

Pick #13:

  1. Washington Wizards (94)
  2. Utah Jazz (6)
  3. Orlando Magic (0)
  4. Milwaukee Bucks (0)

Pick #14:

  1. Chicago Bulls (98)
  2. Washington Wizards (2)
  3. Utah Jazz (0)
  4. Orlando Magic (0)

**The real projected lottery order matches the order that the data I collected from my simulations suggests.**

I found mine by starting at pick 1 and going all the way through pick 14 and picking the team who had each pick selected more times than any of the other teams. If a team had a pick selected more than any other teams, they were disqualified from receiving another pick and that pick was given to the next closest team.

Official Projected Order and My Simulation Projected Order:

  1. Philadelphia 76ers
  2. Los Angeles Lakers
  3. Brooklyn Nets (would be Boston Celtics)
  4. Phoenix Suns
  5. Minnesota Timberwolves
  6. New Orleans Pelicans
  7. New York Knicks (would be Denver Nuggets)
  8. Sacramento Kings
  9. Denver Nuggets (would be Toronto Raptors)
  10. Milwaukee Bucks
  11. Orlando Magic
  12. Utah Jazz
  13. Washington Wizards (would be Phoenix Suns)
  14. Chicago Bulls

-Asher Fair

 

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